剪报
学者预测未来七年内 出现第二个911
（新加坡）新明日报 (2005-07-24)
（综合电）7月23日出刊的‘经济学人’杂志报道，根据战争和恐怖攻击死亡人数的‘幂次法则’，新墨西哥大学学者预测，在未来七 年内还会看到至少和‘九一一’伤亡人数相当的重大恐怖攻击事件。由一群监督伊拉克战争死亡人数的学者组成的‘伊拉克尸体计算’组织本月19日公布， 伊拉克迄今有近2万5000名平民丧生，平均每天有34人丧生。
牛津大学的强森和皇家哈洛威学院的史巴加特认为，也许可以拿战争造成的死亡人数模式定出战争发展模式。他们分析‘伊拉克尸体 计算’组织的资料，并与死亡人数相当的柬埔寨战争做比较，发现这些战争虽然起头时完全不同，但渐渐发展成极类似的战争。
这类研究的基础是英国物理学家李察逊1948年发表的一篇有关战争数学理论的论文。
他利用1820年到1945年间的战争资料，用图表显示不同级数死亡人数的战争次数，结果令人震惊：战争的死亡人数和发生的次数遵循 一种称为‘幂次法则’（power law）的数学关系。
今年5月，新墨西哥大学的克劳塞特和杨格改良李察逊的方法，用来分析恐怖攻击活动。他们未使用战争的死亡总数，而是使用单一事 件的死亡人数，同样得到幂次法则。
七大工业国（G七）内的恐怖攻击要和其他国家分开计算，因为他们的指数不同。G七国家较易遭到大规模恐怖攻击，克劳塞特和杨格今 年稍早在英国物理学会发表文章指出：‘我们若假设未来恐怖攻击的规模关系和频率不变，我们可以预期在未来七年内会看到至少和九一 一同样严重的恐怖攻击。’
读后感：
读过这片报章后，我觉得恐怖袭击是可以避免的。若我们能计算出恐怖袭击或战争能在即使发生，我们就能做好充分的准备，然后解除恐怖袭击的这个概念了。
死亡纪录增增日上，而我们就会陷入一个会越来越危险的社会。因为我们不彻底的铲除的话，恐怖分子就会越来越大担，做出越来越恐怖的事，世上的人就会越来越多。在这个局面里，我们并不占优势，应为我们不知道恐怖分子的下一步或举动。
所以我们必须以和为贵，然后携手铲除恐怖分子。只有这样我们才会有机会击败恐怖分子。我们应该设下多一点讲座，让我们的人民更加了解我们活在这个世界的处境。
梁维政（31）
2/4
posted by 维政 @ 6:45 上午
2 Comments:
维政，你明白报章在报道什么吗？你的读后感完全和报章不相干。
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